A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
